Roundtable Discussion

Background Discussions:

Banking Crisis
Banking Crisis Over?
Economic Scenario Planning

Background Reading:

WSJ Articles on Debit Limit issue and Potential Default
History of the Debt Ceiling

Is Moral Hazard a Moral Hazard?

Moral hazard is a phrase used to describe allowing bad behavior in the financial markets. For example: in capitalism the free market is thought to self-correct greed and fear by the “invisible hand“. But if government or regulators bail-out bad actors, they can be perceived to allow bad behavior, such as greedy investing. A classic example of this was back in the financial crisis when Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail after the regulators bailed out Bear Stearns earlier that year through a forced sale to JPM.

The idea has merit on the surface – set an example by allowing bad actors to “fail”, that way others will think twice before thinking being so greedy. The problem is, it is hypocrisy if the “pot calls the kettle black” which is to say, if market participants punish the greediest, but applaud their slightly less greedy investment structures, that is nothing but hypocrisy

All of us have become like one who is unclean, and all our righteous acts are like filthy rags; we all shrivel up like a leaf, and like the wind our sins sweep us away

Isaiah 64:6

Hank Paulson during the financial crisis of 2008 was faced with these and many other dilemmas. The day after they allowed Lehman to fail, they had to bail out AIG, which was a far worse problem. WAMU failed. Other banks and financial institutions failed. The cost of attempting to let Lehman fail in the name of moral hazard was TARP and massive, broad based bailing out of the financial system to rebuild confidence.

Other examples of moral hazard arguments are made about Student Loan forgiveness. This is a strange one, because the bible says to forgive all debts every seven years. But many Christians are decrying the government forgiving student loans by saying “what about all the responsible people who didn’t go into debt?”. However, we have to be careful not to embrace envy: “hey, how come they got free money and I didn’t?” At the same time, the only way we can forgive federal student debt is to pay it off with general federal debt. So, its not forgiving debt so much as it is shifting debt. An argument can be made this is better, but… This is our reality right now. We are faced with just a series of bad choices.

Speaker McCarthy’s Dilemma

The Republicans hold a narrow margin in the house right now. Speaker McCarthy’s election is on even thinner ice. Because a block of ultra-conservatives (House Freedom Caucus) put him over the top earlier this year, they also now have a gun held to his political head saying in essence: “if you don’t get the Democrats to agree to spending cuts, we will vote you out”. Back to Moral Hazard, the argument made by such financial hawks are: “if we don’t starting cutting our spending, we are going to go bankrupt as a country”. However, if the US government runs out of money through these negotiations, it may imperil our ability to continue to borrow money as a country. If that happens, the USD could partially fail and be relegated to just another currency. In other words, we risk losing being the world’s reserve and settlement currency. Many dominos could fall.

So is the debit limit brinksmanship liken to letting Lehman fail? Time will tell…

Chicken or Egg?

The last time the nation faced the debit ceiling crisis and not being able to service its debt was back in 2011 and 2013. We have a window into the discussions that were held then. Ben Bernanke explained that the first cuts would come to other government services, not principal and interest payments on the debt. Is that still the case? We will find out. What then will get cut? Social Security would be a political smartbomb. What else could get cut. Would that then create a partial government shutdown? Will the June 15th tax receipts be enough to limp through?

Banking Math

M2 money supply roughly $21Tn

Paper currency and coin in circulation $2Tn.

Bank Leverage is at least 10:1 – meaning $9 is lent out and $1 is held in reserve out of $10 of deposits

Bank reserves roughly $3.2Tn currently

Question: If we had a run on the banks and the financial markets (people pulling out hard cash from banks and money market (read short term bonds), would there be enough currency on hand to satisfy a run? If there is not enough, what then will the regulators do?

We can look to Cyrus and Greece as to how this was handled there in recent times…

Romans 911 and NBB Parallel Study – Part 9:Legs and a Face

Join Study Syllabus: https://newbreedco.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/r911-and-nbb-study-syllabus-complete.pdf

We will also pray for Israel as part of the 21 day https://isaiah62fast.com/.
Putting on legs and a face to the Reconnection and the New Breed

“Walking it out…”

Romans 911

Prep

(read pp 117-138 in the Romans 911 Study Guide)

watch R911 Study Guide video

Discussion

 Founding Principles of the Reconnection

 What will the Recon look like?

New Breed of Business

Prep

About the New Breed of Business

Discovering God’s Way of Business video

New Breed of Business Intro Presentation

Discussion

 Founding Principles of the New Breed of Business

 What does the New Breed look like?

Romans 911 and NBB Parallel Study
Part 8: Restoration Bridge

Join Study Syllabus: https://newbreedco.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/r911-and-nbb-study-syllabus-complete.pdf

Romans 911

Prep

• Read 107-116 in Romans 911 Study Guide
• Watch accompanying videos

Discussion

• Five Pillars
• What is the Bridge?
• Abba’s Olive Tree
• The One New Man
• Moving the Ark
• Identificational Repentance

New Breed of Business

Prep

• watch Chris Reed on Babylon video
• watch The Bowls of Repentance video
• watch Economy of Giving and Receiving video
• read Thriving in the Desert post

Discussion

• Making Israel Jealous by Coming Out of Babylon
• Covenant approach – Abraham and the New
• Back to the Garden of Eden
• The One New Man Economy
• Ezra – Clean Hands & Pure Heart
• Pray – 5 Wise Virgins – Intimacy is the key

Roundtable Discussion
Banking Crisis

We discuss the emerging banking crisis with the very recent failure of Silverlake, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and now even larger and multi-national Credit Suisse. Who’s next? What’s next? Is this the big one? What to do?

Background

Sometimes it takes a Crisis: Bear market begins – May 2022 NBB discussion
More Trouble: UK Gilts, Swaps and Credit Suisse – Oct 2022 NBB discussion
Crypto Implosion: FTX fails, un”stable” coins – Nov 2022 NBB discussion
Scenario Planning – Bank runs?:  – Jan 2023 NBB discussion

Relevant Articles for Recent Troubles

Smartphone run on Silicon Valley Bank – WSJ
Treasury, Federal Reserve, FDIC press release on systemic risk – Fed PR
Credit Suisse’s Death Gives Birth to New Type of Bank Crisis – WSJ

Now, those who have been with the New Breed for a while know God has been warning us about shakings coming to the US financial system and how to repent and prepare by Coming out of Babylon and entering into the Storehouse Vision. In January of this year, God impressed us to hold a “Scenario Planning” discussion. Remarkably, there were several quotes from the various scenarios which turned out to be prophetic:

Select Quotes from NBB January 2023 Scenarios

“The Fed tries to keep raising interest rates to tamp inflation, but now all sorts of unintended consequences arise.”

“People panic and a run on the banks ensues.”

“A new global financial crisis emerges and US banks close… when the banks reopen the government bails-in the banking system.”

“the Fed reverses course [on interest rates].”

Actual Headlines

US regulators bail out Silicon Valley Bank customers (Business Insider – March 13, 2023)

Fed’s Tightening Plans Collide With SVB Fallout (Heard on the Street, WSJ – March 14, 2023)

Remarkably, the 3 hypothetical scenarios touched on MUCH OF WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. Praise God for the preparation of his people.
“Surely the Sovereign LORD does nothing without revealing his plan to his servants the prophets.”

 Amos 3:7

Prophetic Word from 2008

Just as it looked like there was light at the end of the tunnel during the 2008 financial crisis (after TARP, bailouts, Lehman’s failure, etc.), I felt the Lord say:

“this is not the end – it is only the beginning of the end”.

With that He gave me Ezekiel 29-32, a section of scripture known as the “Coming judgment of Egypt”.

This is also known as the “seven-fold judgment against Egypt”

There is a timeframe in this passage of 40 years

And I felt like the Lord was saying this is coming in waves of shaking – possibly 7 waves or a ‘complete set’ of waves, which started in 2001:

2001 911 Attacks

2007-9 Financial Crisis

2020 Covid19

2022-23 the emerging banking crisis…

Further, I felt the Lord was saying the US led Global Financial Markets and Banking (ie, Milton Freedman’s clinical capitalism) were likened to the pride of “Pharaoh” and the strength of “Egypt” and was being judged accordingly.

The main sins of Egypt were: pride, self-interest, self-made man, worship of man’s hands (eg, technology), military power, idolatry of money, exploitation of the poor, etc. AND the seduction of the Church (Israel) into all of the same.

This passage has several prophetic keys:

Ezekiel 29: 3-9

   “Pharaoh king of Egypt,
the great dragon that lies
    in the midst of his streams,
that says, ‘My Nile is my own;
    I made it for myself.’
I will put hooks in your jaws,
    and make the fish of your streams stick to your scales;
and I will draw you up out of the midst of your streams,
    with all the fish of your streams
    that stick to your scales.
And I will cast you out into the wilderness,
    you and all the fish of your streams;
you shall fall on the open field,
    and not be brought together or gathered.
To the beasts of the earth and to the birds of the heavens
    I give you as food.

Then all the inhabitants of Egypt shall know that I am the Lord.

“Because you have been a staff of reed to the house of Israel,
when they grasped you with the hand, you broke and tore all their shoulders;
    and when they leaned on you, you broke and made all their loins to shake.
Therefore thus says the Lord God: Behold, I will bring a sword upon you,
    and will cut off from you man and beast, 
    and the land of Egypt shall be a desolation and a waste

Then they will know that I am the Lord.

Deutsche Bank Next?

Is Deutsche Bank next?

AT1 bonds are a newfangled instrument that changes the capital structure. Dubbed bail out bonds, the bonds aren’t worth anything if the bank fails through central bank bailout or government takeover.

What to Do?

As always, we will discuss how the Storehouse Vision is already directly addressing these financial judgments through repentance/reformation, and by bringing believers together in community to “love one another” which means to invest in one another. The question is not: how do I preserve my wealth? But: What is God saying in the midst of this shaking and how do I respond to come into alignment with heaven?

In that way “there shall be no poor among you”

Deut 15:4 & Acts 4:34

Romans 911 and NBB Parallel Study

Part 7: What Realignment Will Achieve

However, when the Son of Man comes, will He find faith on the earth?

Luke 18:8

Background

Syllabus

September’s Study: R911/NBB Study Intro
October’s Study: Key Principles Part 1
November’s Study: Key Principles Part 2
December’s Study: One New Man Obstacles
January’s Study: Divorce Baal/Mammon
February’s Study: Renew Your Mind

Homework

Romans 911 Study Guide:

Read Session 3, Part B “The Realignment” pages 69-82

New Breed of Business:

Read the Non-Profit Ministry Bulletin white paper
Read/Listen the Storehouse Vision page

Discussion Points

Romans 911

• Strategy
• Expectations
• Passing the Baton
• The One New Man
• Prayer   

New Breed of Business

• Return to Biblical Principals
• Trust God materially by faith
• Next Generation is the New Breed
• Storehouse
• Prayer

Roundtable Discussion

Listening to the Heartbeat of Israel
What is God doing? Saying?

It has been said that Israel is God’s prophetic timepiece and Jerusalem the seat of His Throne. Tomorrow we discuss what is going on in Israel and how that affects everything not only in the Kingdom of God, but in the world. Economically. Politically. Spiritually.

So we watch Israel, as we listen to the heartbeat of God. Praying for these dry bones to live! (Ez 37). Let’s explore the timing and alignment of Israel’s preemptive actions and how they relate to other key global moves.

Issachar, men who understood the times and knew what Israel should do

1 Chron 12:32

I am very jealous for Zion; I am burning with jealousy for her. I will return to Zion and dwell in Jerusalem. Then Jerusalem will be called the Faithful City, and the mountain of the Lord Almighty will be called the Holy Mountain

Zech 8:2-3

Background Reading/Podcasts:

• Israel and Inflation
• God’s Timing
• Trade Wars

Discussion Topics

1. Judicial Reforms. What are the implications?

Our friend Christopher Lucey sent this article to me, which was the inspiration for this discussion: Israel’s Central Bank Chief Warns Economic Crisis

Here is a Messianic counterpoint: Monty Judah discussed Judicial Reform in the end-time equation

2. 3rd Temple Construction

Myth? Reality? Timing?
Website on some of what is going on: Temple Institute Jerusalem

3. Russia.

Israel has an interesting relationship with Russia and China. They have not gone along with all the Western Sanctions, nor have they declared Russia an enemy. Why? We discuss.

Roundtable Discussion
Storehouse Q&A

This is Part 6 in the “How To” Create a Storehouse Series…

We will have a time of question and answer about starting or operating a “Storehouse”. All questions are fair game:

• How do fees and costs get paid for ?
• Who makes the decisions about what projects to work on ?
• Can we charge people interest ?
• How do we attract interest ?
• How are debts forgiven ?
• What’s more important: storing up or putting resources to work ?
• Your questions ?

We will have those who have participated in storehouse communities field people’s questions…

Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with much, and whoever is dishonest with very little will also be dishonest with much. So if you have not been trustworthy in handling worldly wealth, who will trust you with true riches?

Luke 16:10-11

Background:

Storehouse Vision

How to Create a Storehouse Series:
Part 1: Seeding Storehouses
Part 2: Why a Storehouse?
Part 3: Needs not my Own
Part 4: Starting a Storehouse
Part 5: Leadership Structure and Governance