Roundtable Discussion:

Economic Scenario Planning

Tomorrow we will discuss three possible future financial/economic scenarios and how God’s people can start to prepare now. We will do this as a way of thinking differently – as a New Breed of Business people – and how we can react well during times of uncertainty and shaking. This will help prepare us today for how to plan and live out our faith now and for the future. By the Spirit and in the natural. A hybrid of heaven and earth.

The discussion format will be this: we’ll lay out three scenarios and you – the NBB “management team” – will brainstorm about what could be done to address certain situations that may emerge. We will also evaluate and test the Storehouse models for how they would work under such scenarios.

Should be fun!

Pierre Wack – Royal Dutch Shell

Back in my strategic planning days in banking, we used a tool/method developed in the 1960s and 1970s known as “Scenario Planning“. This was made famous by Royal Dutch Shell, who through the leadership of Jimmy Davidson, head of Shell’s economics and planning, brought Ted Newland and Pierre Wack together as in-house “futurists”. The duo had a knack for shaping plausible, yet unlikely, future scenarios. And Wack, through his flair of his storytelling developed as a former magazine editor, was highly effective presenting such scenarios to executive management. They were able to imagine future scenarios and “think outside the box” of regular management and planning to solve potential problems. Wack was able to get management to react to his “what would you do if?” type of questions. What emerged were common solutions that came out of the divergent future scenarios. This allowed for Shell to prepare ahead of time for what might eventually come. And it did.

Shell famously prepared well for not one, but several crises. The oil embargo of the 1973 middle east crisis was the first. Their management team was prepared for this. All of their competitors were caught out, unprepared. And in turn, Shell thrived during those times of crisis and increased their market share and profitability.

OK, so how does this translate for us?

Three Scenarios for Discussion

1. China invades TaiwanThe US and its allies in the region hesitate militarily, and decide once again to extend its Russia-type sanctions against dollar trade with China and its allies. But it backfires as supply chains are even more disrupted than during COVID19. Further, it backfires as an Eastern block of nations coalesce with many OPEC nations, distancing themselves from the dollar and trading petro-yuan and petro-rubles instead. Israel finds itself having to develop relationships beyond the US for its financial, energy and economic security.

Reference: Chris Reed’s Taiwan Prophecy

Chuck Pierce’s Passover Prophecies and War of the Future Church (see Trade Wars writeup and podcast)

2. A new global financial crisis emerges and US banks close for a period of six months, when the banks reopen the government bails-in the banking system by renegotiating loans and haircutting deposits.

Reference: David Wilkerson’s “Bank Holiday” Prophecy also see Economic Update in Prophetic Context writeup and podcast

3. Inflation takes off again and the economy goes into recession. Many staples become scarce (famine). US Government receipts decline, so it has to borrow much more – well beyond its capacities to repay. The Fed tries to keep raising interest rates to tamp inflation, but now all sorts of unintended consequences arise. The government can no longer afford to pay its interest, and there is no political will to keep raising rates. So the Fed reverses course and prints money in a desperate attempt to revive the economy. All global credibility and trust in the dollar goes away. People panic and a run on the banks ensues. The existing USD effectively  starts to fail. As a result, FDIC deposits are frozen. Debts can no longer be paid with old dollars. After a brief time, a new CBDC (digital dollar) is introduced that the banks have been testing behind the scenes. Old dollars are no longer accepted for many things. If you want to use old dollars, you have to bring them in for destruction, and only then are you issued new digital currency at 100:1. But that dollar is now controlled by a central authority. You can only use your money to purchase approved items. Rations are also introduced. Paper money is gone instantly because in the crisis, Americans become desperate to try something, anything. Democrats and Republicans alike.

Reference: John Paul Jackson’s Stagflation followed by HyperInflation prophecies

Chris Reed’s $50 Bill Dream (also see Inflation Prophecies writeup and podcast)